[SMM Chromium Weekly Review] Steel tenders in August concluded, market running steady temporarily

On July 25, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia stood at 7,800-7,900 yuan/mt (50% metal content). Prices in Sichuan and north-west China were also at 7,800-7,900 yuan/mt (50% metal content). South African high-carbon ferrochrome was quoted at 7,800-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content), while Kazakh material was offered at 8,800-9,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM.

The ferrochrome market remained stable this week. TISCO and Tsingshan successively announced their August tender prices for high-carbon ferrochrome, aligning with earlier market expectations of a downward trend. At the start of the week, macro tailwinds boosted futures markets, with increased activity in downstream stainless steel markets driving spot price and transaction improvements. This translated to slight upward pricing intentions among some ferrochrome producers. On July 23, TISCO set its August tender price at 7,645 yuan/mt (50% metal content), down 200 yuan MoM, dampening market sentiment. Tsingshan's Friday announcement of a 7,995 yuan/mt (50% metal content) tender price for August, down 100 yuan MoM, provided some relief. Supply and demand dynamics showed persistent overseas production cuts creating a deficit, though domestic output growth was more pronounced, suggesting looser supply ahead. Downstream stainless steel rebounded on policy support, with futures and spot prices rising alongside improved transactions. Limited realization of earlier production cut expectations may benefit ferrochrome demand, maintaining an overall tight balance. Cost side, smelting costs for high-carbon ferrochrome continued climbing. Anti-"rat race" policies pushed coke prices higher, with a second weekly increase implemented. Producers holding chrome ore purchased at $295-300/mtu faced mounting cost pressures, strengthening price support and keeping offers firm. The ferrochrome market is expected to remain strong and stable in the near term, with potential price increases as recovering stainless steel demand drives purchases.

Raw material side, on July 25, 2025, spot 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port were quoted at 54-55 yuan/mtu, with 40-42% South African raw ore at 49-51 yuan/mtu. 46-48% Zimbabwean concentrate was offered at 56-57 yuan/mtu, while 40-42% Turkish lump ore traded at 60-61 yuan/mtu, all flat MoM. Futures prices for 40-42% South African fines held steady at $265-270/mtu.

The chrome ore market operated steadily this week, with improved transaction activity driven by macro tailwinds. Increased ferrochrome production schedules prompted producers to conduct raw material purchases per their plans, boosting ore demand and inquiry sentiment. Affected by the currently high cost of holding inventory, coupled with limited recent port arrivals of chrome ore, chrome ore traders have shown a clear reluctance to budge on prices, with a slight upward sentiment emerging. From the perspective of port inventory, the total chrome ore inventory at ports this week was 2.7437 million mt, down 5.99% MoM. The demand for chrome ore purchases has been released, with outflows from warehouses increasing, and mainly focused on South African ores. In addition, the new round of offer prices from overseas major mines for 40-42% South African fines remained at $265/mt, helping to stabilize the chrome ore market. In August, steel tender prices slightly decreased by 100-200 yuan/mt (50% metal content). The future development trend has gradually become clearer, with chrome ore traders increasing their purchases and warehouse-building activities. Coupled with the release of raw material procurement demand from ferrochrome producers, it is expected that the activity of chrome ore transactions may rise, with a short-term trend of strong and stable operation and potential for slight price increases.